These three levels of severity determine how the existence of a subject is put at risk. The extent to which revenues generated by policy instruments, such as carbon taxes or auctioned (tradeable) emission permits can (1) contribute to mitigation and (2) offset part of the potential welfare losses of climate policies through recycling the revenue in the economy by reducing other distortionary taxes. By definition, the characteristics of what is called extreme weather may vary from place to place in an absolute sense. (Figure SPM.3b) {2.3.3, 2.3.4, 2.4.2, 3.6.2, 4.3.1, 4.2.3, 4.3.2, 4.3.7, 4.4.3, Table 2.4}, C.3.3. Dev Policy Rev A9:3144. By 2100, global mean sea level rise is projected to be around 0.1 metre lower with global warming of 1.5C compared to 2C (medium confidence). Pathways P1, P2, P3 and P4 correspond to the LED, S1, S2, and S5 pathways assessed in Chapter 2 (Figure SPM.3a). Consequently, limiting global warming to 1.5C is projected to reduce risks to marine biodiversity, fisheries, and ecosystems, and their functions and services to humans, as illustrated by recent changes to Arctic sea ice and warm-water coral reef ecosystems (high confidence). Heuking Khn Ler Wojtek advised Sparkasse Hannover on the deal. Saturation in qualitative research: exploring its conceptualization and operationalization, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-017-0574-8, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1617526114, Mechler R, Calliari E, Bouwer LM et al (2019) Science for loss and damage. Typically, baseline scenarios are then compared to mitigation scenarios that are constructed to meet different goals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, atmospheric concentrations or temperature change. It can refer to material circumstances (such as need, pattern of deprivation or limited resources), economic conditions (such as standard of living, inequality or economic position) and/or social relationships (such as social class, dependency, exclusion, lack of basic security or lack of entitlement). The supreme body of UN conventions, such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), comprising parties with a right to vote that have ratified or acceded to the convention. In the stratosphere, it is created by the interaction between solar ultraviolet radiation and molecular oxygen (O2). Poverty is a complex concept with several definitions stemming from different schools of thought. This definition builds from Arctic Council (2016)58 and Berkes and Folke (1998)59. Sci. Some of these metrics are directly relevant for existential risks; for instance, a TW > 35 represents a threat to physical life, or an amount of available water lower than some defined standard affects basic needs. Qual. Non-Emergency Police Department. This is referred to as the global carbon budget; (2) the estimated cumulative amount of global carbon dioxide emissions that that is estimated to limit global surface temperature to a given level above a reference period, taking into account global surface temperature contributions of other GHGs and climate forcers; (3) the distribution of the carbon budget defined under (2) to the regional, national, or sub-national level based on considerations of equity, costs or efficiency. Saturation has attained widespread acceptance as a methodological principle in qualitative research. Live Chat with State Information Center; Email State Information Center; Find a Person; Find an Agency; Call: 1-800-457-8283; That season, Dartmouth, led by head coach Joseph Yukica went 4-3 in Ivy League play (4-4-1 overall). [Penman, J., M. Gytarsky, T. Hiraishi, T. Krug, D. Kruger, R. Pipatti, L. Buendia, K. Miwa, T. Ngara, K. Tanabe, and F. Wagner (eds.)]. These have been labelled as: theoretical saturation, inductive thematic saturation, a priori thematic saturation, and data saturation. Nat Clim Change 10:586588. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. Made in San Francisco. Many countries appear in more than one of these categories. Knowledge gaps include insufficient data to calculate specific climate resilience-enhancing investments from the provision of currently underinvested basic infrastructure. This paper explores, in both conceptual and practical terms, three key issues: consent; confidentiality and anonymity; and risk of harm. Following the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories, anthropogenic land-related GHG fluxes are defined as all those occurring on managed land, i.e., where human interventions and practices have been applied to perform production, ecological or social functions. In this report, separate consideration is given to the two main approaches considered as geoengineering in some of the literature: solar radiation modification (SRM) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Similarly, the COVID-19 pandemic, although with unprecedented global and probably long-lasting effects on people, society, and economy, would not qualify as an existential or global catastrophic risk because it is not considered a threat to the survival of humanity. Footer. Sci Adv 3:e1603322. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, IPCC (2018) Global Warming of 1.5C. This indicates that the area at risk is projected to be approximately 50% lower at 1.5C compared to 2C (medium confidence). Transition can be in individuals, firms, cities, regions and nations, and can be based on incremental or transformative change. For Any Information (800) 457-8283. The IPCC AR5 introduced the concept of key risks that can potentially have severe adverse consequences for humans and socio-ecological systems (Oppenheimer et al. You don't have access just yet, but in the meantime, you can Moreover, making the existential space part of risk analysis or risk management strategies can help to identify which risks may need to be avoided, either through adaptation and risk reduction or through climate change mitigation, or, in the worst case, define conditions where risks may not be further reduced, and transformative change becomes necessary. Partner content. When and how?at what stage in the research is saturation sought, and how can we assess if it has been achieved? This chapter frames the context, knowledge-base and assessment approaches used to understand the impacts of 1.5C global warming above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, building on the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable {5.5.2, 5.5.3, Box 5.3, Figure 5.1, Figure 5.6, Cross-Chapter Boxes 12 and 13 in Chapter 5}, D.6.2. Livestock are projected to be adversely affected with rising temperatures, depending on the extent of changes in feed quality, spread of diseases, and water resource availability (high confidence). Overshoot implies a peak followed by a decline in global warming, achieved through anthropogenic removal of CO2 exceeding remaining CO2 emissions globally. Google Scholar, Birks, M., Mills, J.: Grounded Theory: A Practical Guide, 2nd edn. An estimate of the global mean surface temperature response to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration that is evaluated from model output or observations for evolving non-equilibrium conditions. This may be related to the difficulties of estimating the probability of occurrence of specific types of events. As countries join the Paris Agreement, unless they decide otherwise, this INDC becomes their first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Considering the various types of research in which saturation might feature helps to clarify the purposes it is intended to fulfil. One component of the GDP that corresponds to the total value of acquisitions, minus disposals of fixed assets during one year by the business sector, governments and households, plus certain additions to the value of non-produced assets (such as subsoil assets or major improvements in the quantity, quality or productivity of land). With regard to the second model identified, inductive thematic saturation, the fact that the focus is more explicitly on reaching saturation at the level of analysisi.e. Toxic air chokes high street sales in Delhi, People have started avoiding high streets such as Khan Market and Connaught Place amid severe air pollution in. In: Chtouris Traub (ed) Need-Based Distributive Justice. REDD+ goes beyond deforestation and forest degradation, and includes the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks. See also Green infrastructure. Drought is a relative term, therefore any discussion in terms of precipitation deficit must refer to the particular precipitation-related activity that is under discussion. Narratives are also referred to in the literature as storylines. Nat Clim Change 7:723729. This set of compounds includes methane (CH4), which is also a well-mixed greenhouse gas, as well as ozone (O3) and aerosols, or their precursors, and some halogenated species that are not well-mixed greenhouse gases. Any increase in global warming is projected to affect human health, with primarily negative consequences (high confidence). Similarly, Morses view of saturation seems to embody elements of both theoretical and data saturation. Scholars distinguish between natural existential risks, such as a large asteroid impact on earth or a supervolcanic eruption, and anthropogenic existential risks, including those related to nuclear war, artificial intelligence, pandemics, and climate change (Bostrom 2013). 1). A special thanks goes to Kenny Coventry, Harmen Gudde, Irene Lorenzoni, and Stuart Jenkins for their support with the figures in the Summary for Policymakers, as well as Nigel Hawtin for graphical support of the Report. An individuals reason or reasons for acting in a particular way; individuals may consider various consequences of actions, including financial, social, affective and environmental consequences. Note that in the literature SRM is also referred to as solar radiation management or albedo enhancement. 17(10), 13721380 (2007), Strauss, A., Corbin, J.: Basics of Qualitative Research: Techniques and Procedures for Developing Grounded Theory, 2nd edn. Get Help. (2017) propose that, given the potential for uncertainty about the point at which saturation is reached, attention should focus more on providing evidence that saturation has been reached, than on concerns about the point at which this occurred. It is therefore a mechanism for mitigation that results from avoiding deforestation. Justice is concerned with ensuring that people get what is due to them, setting out the moral or legal principles of fairness and equity in the way people are treated, often based on the ethics and values of society. Investment needs for such complementary policies are only a small fraction of the overall mitigation investments in 1.5C pathways. Where multiple greenhouse gases are involved, the quantification of negative emissions depends on the climate metric chosen to compare emissions of different gases (such as global warming potential, global temperature change potential, and others, as well as the chosen time horizon). In: Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, PLattner G-K, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM (eds) A special report of working groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For buildings, it is often measured as kWh m-2, and for vehicles as km liter-1 or liter km-1. Indeed, saturation is often proposed as an essential methodological element within such work. Live Chat with State Information Center; Email State Information Center; Find a Person; Find an Agency; Call: 1-800-457-8283; The WaterField City Slicker case for the Steam Deck ended up being the perfect fit for both me and the Deck itself. The risks of climate-induced impacts are projected to be higher at 2C than those at global warming of 1.5C (high confidence). Although somewhat debated, a TW of 35C is taken as the upper limit in which survival under sustained exposure is even under idealized conditions no longer possible (Sherwood and Huber 2010; Raymond et al. Annual investments in low-carbon energy technologies and energy efficiency are upscaled by roughly a factor of six (range of factor of 4 to 10) by 2050 compared to 2015 (medium confidence). In such studies, analysis tends to focus more on strands within individual accounts rather than on analytical themes; these strands are essentially continuous, whereas themes are essentially recurrent. The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international treaty adopted in December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, at the Third Session of the Conference of the Parties (COP3) to the UNFCCC. On the contrary, the Catalyst Vibe Case was built to enhance the iPhone 13 Pro's features. Climate-resilient development pathways (CRDPs). The purchasing power of a currency is expressed using a basket of goods and services that can be bought with a given amount in the home country. Its concentration is highest in the ozone layer. Whilst consideration of the concept has led some commentators to argue for the need for qualitative researchers to provide a more thorough and transparent reporting of how they achieved saturation in their research, thus allowing readers to assess the validity of this claim (Bowen 2008; Francis et al. One of the six greenhouse gases (GHGs) to be mitigated under the Kyoto Protocol. See also Anthropogenic and Anthropogenic removals. When estimating changes in GMST, near-surface air temperature over both land and oceans are also used.20{1.2.1.1}, Pre-industrial: The multi-century period prior to the onset of large-scale industrial activity around 1750. A mitigation pathway is a temporal evolution of a set of mitigation scenario features, such as greenhouse gas emissions and socio-economic development. Fifty-eight countries and territories are presently classified as SIDS by the UN OHRLLS, with 38 being UN member states and 20 being Non-UN Members or Associate Members of the Regional Commissions (UN-OHRLLS, 2018)57. Qual. Funding by Sparkasse Hannover, QVM Privatkapital announced the acquisition of GLOBOS Logistik- und Informationssysteme GmbH. Any Emergency (800) 222-1222. Global average of near-surface air temperatures over land and oceans. We will argue not only for greater transparency in the reporting of saturation, as others have done (Bowen 2008; Francis et al. Heavy precipitation when aggregated at global scale is projected to be higher at 2C than at 1.5C of global warming (medium confidence). For Any Information (800) 457-8283. "For the last three days, the crowd has dipped and shops have also reported a decline in footfalls in comparison with last week. Copyright 2022 Bennett, Coleman & Co. Ltd. All rights reserved. In pathways limiting global warming to 1.5C with limited or no overshoot, BECCS deployment is projected to range from 01, 08, and 016 GtCO2 yr1 in 2030, 2050, and 2100, respectively, while agriculture, forestry and land-use (AFOLU) related CDR measures are projected to remove 05, 111, and 15 GtCO2 yr1 in these years (medium confidence). Context-relevant design and implementation requires considering peoples needs, biodiversity, and other sustainable development dimensions (very high confidence). Proc Natl Acad Sci 109:36283631. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 10391099, Ord T (2020) The precipice: existential risk and the future of humanity. Similarly, doubts have been raised regarding its common adoption as a sole criterion of the adequacy of data collection and analysis (Charmaz 2005), or of the adequacy of theory development: Elegance, precision, coherence, and clarity are traditional criteria for evaluating theory, somewhat swamped by the metaphorical emphasis on saturation (Dey 2007: p. 186). Examples include the steam engine, power generator and motor, ICT, and biotechnology. Most commonly energy efficiency is measured as input energy over a physical or economic unit, i.e., kWh USD-1 (energy intensity), kWh tonne-1. For human systems, however, specification of the type, magnitude, extent, and timing of such threats remains elusive. This range spans the four available peer-reviewed estimates of the observed GMST change and also accounts for additional uncertainty due to possible short-term natural variability. Additional annual average energy-related investments for the period 2016 to 2050 in pathways limiting warming to 1.5C compared to pathways without new climate policies beyond those in place today are estimated to be around 830 billion USD2010 (range of 150 billion to 1700 billion USD2010 across six models)18. Thanks are due to Elhousseine Gouaini who served as the conference officer for the 48th Session of the IPCC. In: Morse, J.M. A key issue underlying the identification of saturation is the extent to which it is viewed as an event or a process. Get Help. Lower risks are projected at 1.5C than at 2C for heat-related morbidity and mortality (very high confidence) and for ozone-related mortality if emissions needed for ozone formation remain high (high confidence). Whilst the focus remains at the level of analysis, the decision to be made appears to relate to the emergence of new codes or themes, rather than the degree of development of those already identified. In: Mechler R, Bouwer LM, Schinko T et al (eds) Loss and Damage from Climate Change: Concepts, Methods and Policy Options. Solutions to exercises in 'A Primer on Scientific Programming with Python' by Hans Petter Langtangen. [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. The framework can, however, also be applied to risks with less drastic consequences than portrayed above (e.g., for COVID-19). Health Res. GDP is calculated without deducting for depreciation of fabricated assets or depletion and degradation of natural resources. See Global mean surface temperature (GMST), Land surface air temperature, Global mean surface air temperature (GSAT) and Sea surface temperature (SST). See also Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous oxide (N2O) and Ozone (O3). Technology. Doctor Who is a British science fiction television show broadcast by the BBC since 1963. The best handcrafted quality bags, backpacks, custom-fit sleeves for MacBook, Surface, laptops, iPad, tablets, iPhones, Nintendo Switch & other tech gear. 2006). UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (UNOHCHR). Such reductions can be achieved through combinations of new and existing technologies and practices, including electrification, hydrogen, sustainable bio-based feedstocks, product substitution, and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS).
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